A Point Loma seller pricing a house this week will likely start from the September comps. Those comps look healthy. In ZIP 92106, the median detached sale in September 2026 was $1,995,000, up 5.0% from September 2025, according to the Greater San Diego Association of REALTORS® Local Market Update.
The same report shows something else. In September 2026, Point Loma recorded 5 pending detached sales, compared with 12 a year earlier. Closed sales tell you what buyers agreed to weeks ago. Pending sales tell you what buyers are willing to sign now. Those two numbers were set under different mortgage rates, and the space between them is where this fall's negotiations happen.
Two Numbers From the Same Month
These are the September 2026 figures for detached homes in 92106, with the year-to-date column alongside:
| Detached, 92106 | Sept 2025 | Sept 2026 | YTD thru Sept 2025 | YTD thru Sept 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pending sales | 12 | 5 | 108 | 112 |
| Closed sales | 13 | 11 | 100 | 106 |
| Median sales price | $1,900,050 | $1,995,000 | $1,900,025 | $1,892,500 |
| Percent of original list price received | 97.6% | 97.8% | 97.1% | 97.9% |
| Days on market until sale | 29 | 28 | 32 | 28 |
| Months supply of inventory | 2.9 | 2.7 | n/a | n/a |
Two things in that table work against the headline. First, the year-to-date detached median through September 2026 is $1,892,500. That is 0.4% below the same period in 2025. The 5% September gain comes from 11 closings, and SDAR's own footnote warns that percent changes "can sometimes look extreme due to small sample size." With a sample that small, one bluff-top sale or one dated house on a large lot can move the September median.
Second, the year-to-date pending count makes September's drop more striking. Subtract September from the totals and Point Loma had 107 detached pendings through August 2026, against 96 through August 2025. That is roughly 11% ahead of the prior year. Then September came in at less than half of September 2025. For eight months, contract activity on the peninsula ran ahead of last year. Then it slowed sharply.
The Weeks the Rate Crossed 7%
The slowdown matches the mortgage calendar. Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey archive shows the 30-year fixed average holding near 6.65% through late August, then climbing every week into October:
- August 20, 2026: 6.65%
- September 10, 2026: 6.76%
- September 17, 2026: 6.95%
- September 24, 2026: 7.03%
- October 1, 2026: 7.28%
- October 8 and October 15, 2026: 7.40%
A year ago the same survey stood at 6.27%. In mid-September the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate a quarter point, to a 3.75% to 4.00% range, as Reuters reported. The Mortgage Bankers Association's application index then fell to a 15-month low. AP reported on October 15 that the 10-year Treasury yield had topped 5.30% earlier in the month, then eased to 5.10%. Before late February it was 3.97%.
At those Freddie Mac averages, principal and interest on each $1 million borrowed comes to about $6,430 a month at 6.66% and about $6,920 at 7.40%. That is roughly $500 more per month for every million. At Point Loma prices, many loans run well past a million.
The rate climb lines up with the two Point Loma columns. A house that closed in September usually went under contract weeks earlier, when rates were in the 6.6% range. A contract signed in September was signed while rates rose almost every week. So the $1,995,000 median reflects the earlier rate environment, and the count of 5 pendings reflects the current one.
What Sellers Were Already Accepting
Even before the rate jump, Point Loma prices were less firm than the median suggests. Detached sellers received 97.8% of original list price in September 2026, and 97.9% year to date. On a home listed at $2 million, that is a gap of about $44,000 between first asking price and final sale price. That is the average, and it came while rates were lower. SDAR also notes that its price figures do not account for sale concessions. Any credits negotiated in escrow are not reflected in that 97.8%.
Supply has not jumped to absorb the slowdown, at least not yet. Detached inventory in 92106 was 30 homes in September 2026, against 31 a year earlier, with 2.7 months of supply. Across San Diego County, detached supply was 2.4 months, and sellers received 97.7% of original list price in September 2026, according to SDAR's county report. Point Loma's detached market is not flooded with listings. It has about the same number of homes for sale as last year and far fewer buyers signing contracts.
Condos and Townhomes Were Already Loosening
The attached segment is where the fall data is easiest to misread. In September 2026, the attached median in 92106 jumped 68.8% to $1,325,000. That figure comes from three sales and says very little. The other attached numbers matter more, because they all point the same way:
- Inventory rose to 16 homes from 12, up 33.3%.
- Months of supply reached 4.6, compared with 2.7 for detached homes in the same ZIP.
- Days on market until sale rose to 51 from 32, and the year-to-date figure is 46 days versus 30.
- Pending attached sales fell to 2 from 5, and year-to-date pendings are down 15.4%.
- Year to date, attached sellers received 96.6% of original list price, down from 97.7%.
So the attached market was loosening before the rate jump, and the September pendings suggest the rate jump has added to it. County attached supply was 4.0 months in September 2026. That puts Point Loma's condo and townhome market on the slower side of a county market that is already slow.
The loan limit sharpens the split. The FHFA 2026 conforming loan limit for a one-unit property in San Diego County is $1,104,000. The year-to-date attached median in 92106 is $1,097,450, just under that line. At the year-to-date detached median of $1,892,500, keeping the loan at the conforming limit takes about $788,500 down. At September's $1,995,000, it takes about $891,000. A buyer at the attached median can stay inside the county limit with almost any down payment. A buyer at the detached median needs a down payment of that size to do the same.
Where This Leaves an Offer in Late October
The practical result is a pricing argument with two reference points. A seller will point to the $1,995,000 September median and 28 days on market. A buyer can point out that those closings were negotiated at rates near 6.6%, that the year-to-date median is flat, and that contract volume in September fell to less than half of last year's. Both sides have accurate numbers. They are describing different weeks.
For a buyer, the most useful questions about any comp are dated ones:
- When did the comparable home go under contract, rather than when did it close?
- What was its original list price, and how far below that did it sell?
- How long has the target home been listed, measured against the 28-day detached median or the 51-day attached figure for September 2026?
Sellers face the opposite timing problem. A detached listing priced from August-signed comps is asking today's buyers to pay for August's rates. An attached listing is competing against 16 other units in a segment with 4.6 months of supply.
October's SDAR figures will not be published before this post goes live. So the September pending count is still the most recent read on a market that changed in mid-September.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Point Loma's median price rising or falling? It depends on the window. The September 2026 detached median was up 5.0% from a year earlier, while the year-to-date detached median through September was down 0.4%. With only 11 closings in September, the year-to-date figure is the more stable measure.
Does 92107 count as Point Loma in these figures? No. SDAR labels its 92107 report Ocean Beach, so this analysis uses only 92106.
Why focus on pending sales instead of closed sales? Pending sales count contracts signed during the month, so they respond to rate changes weeks before closed sales do. In September 2026, both detached and attached pendings in 92106 fell by more than half from the year before.
The loan figures above are general market information, not financial or lending advice. Confirm your own financing with a licensed lender before you write an offer.
If you are pricing a Point Loma home or putting together an offer this fall, the most useful comps are the ones measured against the rate in effect when they went under contract. Justin Halbert can sort the closings by contract date and rate before you set a list price or write an offer. Schedule a Strategy Call.
